NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season; Warmer Atlantic, La Niña are main factors

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – We know that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has set out its seasonal outlook for what’s expected to be an above average hurricane season. Can you explain the numbers that they are expecting and the reasons behind that?

“Sure. I’ll give you some perspective. First, for what a normal or average season would be. That would be 14 named storms, half of which become hurricanes and then three major hurricanes, which is category three or higher. This year’s numbers are the highest numbers forecast in a preseason forecast by NOAA, and the forecast calls for 17 to 25 named storms. That compares to 14. 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes,” said Mark Wool, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Tallahassee, Florida.

So, you’re saying that’s the highest forecast that NOAA has ever issued?

“That’s correct. Now, we’ve revised forecasts upward mid-season into these ranges, but this is the highest it’s ever been pre season, which indicates the confidence that the season will be active,” said Wool.

We already know that the Atlantic waters are near July levels or about two or three months ahead of schedule. Also, we have a developing, an evolving La Niña in the Pacific. Can you explain more about what is La Niña and how it develops?

“Those are two of the biggest factors for this forecast. I think the warming ocean is pretty easy to figure out. We put having warmer and warmer temperatures and so the ocean is catching up. But… La Niña and El Niño, those are phenomenon that that happen relative to the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific, relative to normal. We kind of root for El Niño when hurricane season approaches, because what El Niño does is it ramps up the subtropical jet stream. And, all that means is that there’s a lot of strong wind way up in the atmosphere, and that tends to keep hurricanes from organizing. Unfortunately, we’re rapidly transitioning away from one of those and into a La Niña set up where it’s cooler than normal in the equatorial Pacific. And, that really weakens the jet stream. So, there’s nothing standing in the way of these tropical systems getting organized and strengthening,” said Wool.

When I look back at history, with a La Niña developing, I look back at past hurricane seasons with different tracks. And, I found that, interestingly, that there’s not a whole lot of tracks in our particular area of the Gulf Coast that are more focused, more west. They’re more focused, more east. But… I think it’s important that everyone prepares just the same.

“That’s correct. You know, we have we have a six month season here, for one thing, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which is where most of the systems that would affect Georgia come from…. Right. We can get systems before June 1st. We could get them in November. So, we need to be prepared all season. But, we did go through a fairly long lull in the historic record between getting major hurricanes in this region. And, then, Hurricane Michael happened in 2018. There had never been more than a Cat 3 over there in Bay County. And, there was a that was a Cat 5. Just last year, Idalia comes up… There had never been a major hurricane in the historic record over there. Now we have one. So, the frequency of those higher end storms, the cat fours and fives. That’s a that’s a trend that we are already observing and we expect that to continue. So, the implications for Georgia are if you get stronger storms at landfall, it’s more likely they’re still going to be hurricanes when they get into Georgia,” said Wool.

And… a lot of that has to do with factors like rapid intensification that are hard to forecast?

“Yes, that’s correct. It has been one of the bigger challenges in forecasting, although I will give props where they are due. The National Hurricane Center is getting better at that and in fact, correctly forecast a delay to go through a period of rapid strength strengthening with landfalling tropical cyclones, tropical storms, hurricanes,” said Wool.

What are some of the main hazards that South Georgia can face from these storms?

“If you get a big, strong, major hurricane like Idalia and Michael, you’ve got to worry about the wind, right? But, more typically, if you have a weakening storm, by the time it gets into Georgia, it doesn’t mean you’re not out of the woods because of flooding rain. There’s a lot of flooding problems. There’s rivers all through southwest Georgia that they can become a problem. You know, maybe not the day of the hurricane, but are several days down the road. So that flash flooding, tornadoes, a lot of people don’t necessarily realize that some hurricanes, not all, but some have tornadoes in the outer bands so that they can certainly rake up over Georgia as well. Don’t have to worry about storm surge. But, you know, those other three things can all come into play, especially for the bigger storms,” said Wool.

What kind of message would you send home to most South Georgians that are watching? And what is something that the forecasters may or may not be sure about this year when it comes to the seasonal outlook?

“Well, one thing the seasonal outlook doesn’t tell you is, you know, how many U.S. landfalls there will be it. It’s reasonable to assume that the more storms they’re predicting overall, the higher the likelihood that they will have increased amounts of U.S. landfalls. But, we can’t predict with that kind of accuracy maybe the but this will be the year most of them go to the East Coast. Maybe this is the year they go out to Louisiana and Texas. Right. Or, maybe they’ll this will be a year for Florida again. And, we can’t tell that in the timescales we’re talking about when these preseason outlooks come out. So, for that reason, I don’t care what the outlook is. Every year I come with the same message. We could predict one storm or we can predict 50. The message is the same. Because, if that one storm comes to you, ask the residents in the eastern Big Bend, Valdosta from last year with Idalia, then that makes it a busy season for you. So, you better be prepared ahead of time. That’s why we want people to be getting that preparedness piece done right now. Getting your emergency supplies kits, you know, stocked up with all of the things you’re going to need to withstand a prolonged power outage, because that’s almost a certainty. Right. For days and days, maybe over a week. So you got to have that. You have to check on your insurance, see how sturdy your house is. Find out if you don’t live in an a very strong structure. Find out where you’re going to evacuate to ahead of time and make those plans ahead of time,” said Wool.

National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

National Weather Service Tallahassee, Florida: https://www.weather.gov/tae/

Matthew Crumley reporting.

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