CBS 44 Weather Authority Forecast: August 25, 2023

Matthew Crumley,

Heat advisory until 8pm Saturday for all of SWGA, and likely to see another one issued for at least parts of the area on Sunday. Hottest of the year this weekend! Near record heat possible! Records are 104° & 103° set in the year 1938 for Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Models have increased rainfall potential the next 7 days. 2″-3″ of rainfall possible from both approaching frontal system and/or at least increased moisture from a possible tropical system.

Tropics: Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week. NHC increases development chances to 80%. This possible system is more of a Yucatan Mexico, western Cuba, FL Straits, even western FL Peninsula problem right now.

Model data is increasing confidence on tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. GFS Model has went from a weak system to a full blown hurricane. That solution is a little more questionable since that model has lacked run to run consistency, but it is more in line with ECMWF for intensity, which has been more consistent.
Keep in mind, nothing has developed yet, and the models will continue to vary in both track and intensity with the ‘Windshield Wiper’ effect. For now, it’s a watch and wait, and we should know more this weekend if the hurricane hunters collect data for the models. IF, and that’s a big IF we were to see any impacts it would be between Tuesday-Thursday of next week. IF it becomes a named storm it would be Idalia (ee-DAL-ya). Stay tuned for updates!

Still lots of uncertainty, but worth watching closely in the coming days! For the latest on the tropics visit NHC website at hurricanes.gov

Matthew Crumley
@MattCBS44

Because Local Matters!

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