Severe Weather Possible Sunday 3/12/2023

WEATHER – A “Slight Risk” of severe storms now includes all of SWGA  – the entire CBS 44 viewing area – for Sunday, March 12, 2023.

Main threats are damaging wind and hail (mostly quarter size, but up to golf ball size possible), & a tornado or two is possible.

There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall that could lead to nuisance flooding.

Because there could be multiple rounds of storms the timing will vary at any given location, but the window of opportunity for storms opens up around noon for the northwestern counties to about midnight just south of Highway 82.

The storms may not arrive until around 2pm south of Highway 82, but could last as late as 2 am Monday morning for areas along the GA/FL line.

Again, with this event there will be no “cap” or warm air aloft to prevent storm development; in fact, we’ll have just the opposite, the colder air aloft will create instability.

The upper air dynamics will not be as strong as previous storm systems, but a subtle, fast-moving shortwave – perturbation in the jet stream – will be sufficient enough for severe weather.

The focus of lift for the activity will be any leftover outflow boundaries that foster storm development.

The only limiting factor is that if we see widespread late morning or early afternoon activity that could workover the atmosphere or use up what energy is there, and any cool pools from previous storms could hinder the more robust updrafts.

There will not be much directional change but some increase in speed shear with height, so the tornado threat is low, but not zero and could be enhanced where storms merge or cluster together.

Make sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts! Stay tuned for updates!

Matthew Crumley
@MattCBS44

Because Local Matters!